Prof Rury R Holman FMedSci FRCP

Research Area: Health Evaluative Methodologies
Technology Exchange: Drug discovery, Epidemiology and Medical statistics
Keywords: Multinational clinical outcome trials, Translational Research Trials, Treatment of type 2 diabetes, Prevention of Type 2 diabetes, Cardiovascular risk reduction in type 2 diabetes and Mathematical modelling
Web Links:

The DTU is the largest Academic Research Organisation (ARO) worldwide that specialises in performing diabetes-related mega trials. It designs, runs and analyses large-scale interventional clinical outcome trials nationally and internationally, often in collaboration with other AROs and pharmaceutical companies. The DTU also undertakes major modelling and statistical programmes to utilise fully the data available from its many studies with a particular emphasis on modelling diabetes and cardiovascular disease processes. It maintains DNA, urine and plasma biobanks and facilitates the genomic, proteomic and metabonomic evaluation of these materials. In addition, the DTU evaluates novel treatments and devices for the therapy of diabetes trials and undertakes research into potential new therapeutic agents. It is a fully registered UKCRC Clinical Trials Unit and is a founder member of the Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism (OCDEM) which forms part of the 4* rated University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Medicine.

Name Department Institution Country
Robert M Califf Duke Clinical Research Institute Duke University United States
Prof Changyu Pan Endocrinology PLA General Hospital, Beijing China
Prof Dayi Hu Heart Center Peking University’s People’s Hospital China
Prof Hertzel C Gerstein Medicine McMaster University Canada
Prof Mark McCarthy OCDEM University of Oxford United Kingdom
Prof Anna L Gloyn OCDEM University of Oxford United Kingdom
Dr Jonathan C Levy FRCP OCDEM University of Oxford United Kingdom
Prof Lionel Tarrasenko CBE Institute of Biomedical Engineering University of Oxford United Kingdom
Prof Fredrik Karpe OCDEM University of Oxford United Kingdom
Prof John Geddes Department of Psychiatry University of Oxford United Kingdom
Prof Paul Harrison (MPLS) University of Oxford United Kingdom
Prof Guy Goodwin Department of Psychiatry University of Oxford United Kingdom
Melanie Davies University of Leicester United Kingdom
Salim Yusuf McMaster University Canada
Philip Clarke School of Public Health, Sydney Australia

GoDARTS and UKPDS Diabetes Pharmacogenetics Study Group, Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2, Zhou K, Bellenguez C, Spencer CC, Bennett AJ, Coleman RL, Tavendale R et al. 2011. Common variants near ATM are associated with glycemic response to metformin in type 2 diabetes. Nat Genet, 43 (2), pp. 117-120. Read abstract | Read more

Metformin is the most commonly used pharmacological therapy for type 2 diabetes. We report a genome-wide association study for glycemic response to metformin in 1,024 Scottish individuals with type 2 diabetes with replication in two cohorts including 1,783 Scottish individuals and 1,113 individuals from the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. In a combined meta-analysis, we identified a SNP, rs11212617, associated with treatment success (n = 3,920, P = 2.9 × 10(-9), odds ratio = 1.35, 95% CI 1.22-1.49) at a locus containing ATM, the ataxia telangiectasia mutated gene. In a rat hepatoma cell line, inhibition of ATM with KU-55933 attenuated the phosphorylation and activation of AMP-activated protein kinase in response to metformin. We conclude that ATM, a gene known to be involved in DNA repair and cell cycle control, plays a role in the effect of metformin upstream of AMP-activated protein kinase, and variation in this gene alters glycemic response to metformin. Hide abstract

NAVIGATOR Study Group, Holman RR, Haffner SM, McMurray JJ, Bethel MA, Holzhauer B, Hua TA, Belenkov Y et al. 2010. Effect of nateglinide on the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular events. N Engl J Med, 362 (16), pp. 1463-1476. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: The ability of short-acting insulin secretagogues to reduce the risk of diabetes or cardiovascular events in people with impaired glucose tolerance is unknown. METHODS: In a double-blind, randomized clinical trial, we assigned 9306 participants with impaired glucose tolerance and either cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors to receive nateglinide (up to 60 mg three times daily) or placebo, in a 2-by-2 factorial design with valsartan or placebo, in addition to participation in a lifestyle modification program. We followed the participants for a median of 5.0 years for incident diabetes (and a median of 6.5 years for vital status). We evaluated the effect of nateglinide on the occurrence of three coprimary outcomes: the development of diabetes; a core cardiovascular outcome that was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure; and an extended cardiovascular outcome that was a composite of the individual components of the core composite cardiovascular outcome, hospitalization for unstable angina, or arterial revascularization. RESULTS: After adjustment for multiple testing, nateglinide, as compared with placebo, did not significantly reduce the cumulative incidence of diabetes (36% and 34%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.15; P=0.05), the core composite cardiovascular outcome (7.9% and 8.3%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.94, 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.09; P=0.43), or the extended composite cardiovascular outcome (14.2% and 15.2%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.93, 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.03; P=0.16). Nateglinide did, however, increase the risk of hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons with impaired glucose tolerance and established cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors, assignment to nateglinide for 5 years did not reduce the incidence of diabetes or the coprimary composite cardiovascular outcomes. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00097786.) Hide abstract

NAVIGATOR Study Group, McMurray JJ, Holman RR, Haffner SM, Bethel MA, Holzhauer B, Hua TA, Belenkov Y et al. 2010. Effect of valsartan on the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular events. N Engl J Med, 362 (16), pp. 1477-1490. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether drugs that block the renin-angiotensin system reduce the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular events in patients with impaired glucose tolerance. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomized clinical trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design, we assigned 9306 patients with impaired glucose tolerance and established cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors to receive valsartan (up to 160 mg daily) or placebo (and nateglinide or placebo) in addition to lifestyle modification. We then followed the patients for a median of 5.0 years for the development of diabetes (6.5 years for vital status). We studied the effects of valsartan on the occurrence of three coprimary outcomes: the development of diabetes; an extended composite outcome of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, arterial revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina; and a core composite outcome that excluded unstable angina and revascularization. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of diabetes was 33.1% in the valsartan group, as compared with 36.8% in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the valsartan group, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.92; P<0.001). Valsartan, as compared with placebo, did not significantly reduce the incidence of either the extended cardiovascular outcome (14.5% vs. 14.8%; hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.07; P=0.43) or the core cardiovascular outcome (8.1% vs. 8.1%; hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.14; P=0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with impaired glucose tolerance and cardiovascular disease or risk factors, the use of valsartan for 5 years, along with lifestyle modification, led to a relative reduction of 14% in the incidence of diabetes but did not reduce the rate of cardiovascular events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00097786.) Hide abstract

Neil HAW, Ceglarek U, Thiery J, Paul S, Farmer A, Holman RR. 2010. Impact of atorvastatin and omega-3 ethyl esters 90 on plasma plant sterol concentrations and cholesterol synthesis in type 2 diabetes: A randomised placebo controlled factorial trial Atherosclerosis, 213 (2), pp. 512-517. Read abstract | Read more

Objective: To determine the effects of statin treatment and omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementation on plasma plant sterol concentrations and cholesterol synthesis in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods: Plant sterol concentrations and lanosterol (a marker of cholesterol synthesis) were measured using a high sensitivity assay to assess the effect of double-blind daily treatment for 4 months with atorvastatin 20. mg or placebo and, in a 2 × 2 factorial design, omega-3 ethyl esters 90 2. g or placebo. Results: 658 patients were included in a per protocol analysis. The 4 treatment groups had similar mean [SD] age (63.5 years [11.7]), HbA1c (6.9% [1.1]) and diabetes duration (median 4 years [inter-quartile range 2, 8]). Atorvastatin treatment alone reduced low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol by 1.4mmol/l (44%, p<0.001), triglycerides by 0.3mmol/l (20%, p<0.0001) and lanosterol by 0.36μmol/l (72%, p<0.001). There was no significant placebo adjusted change in median [95% confidence intervals] total plant sterol concentrations (-0.77μmol/l [inter-quartile range -2.13, 0.59]), although they were increased significantly with omega-3-acid EE90 treatment (3.23μmol/l [1.28, 5.17]). There was a 27% smaller reduction in LDL cholesterol with atorvastatin treatment in low cholesterol synthesisers with high absorption, defined by changes at or above the median lanosterol and campesterol levels, respectively, compared with the obverse group (difference 0.42mmol/l [0.21, 0.62]). Conclusion: Treatment with atorvastatin in type 2 diabetes did not change median total plasma plant sterol concentrations, but LDL cholesterol was reduced most efficaciously in high cholesterol synthesisers with low intestinal cholesterol absorption. Clinical trial registration information: Current controlled trials number ISRCTN: 76737502 (http://isrctn.org). © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. Hide abstract

Holman RR, Farmer AJ, Davies MJ, Levy JC, Darbyshire JL, Keenan JF, Paul SK, 4-T Study Group. 2009. Three-year efficacy of complex insulin regimens in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 361 (18), pp. 1736-1747. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: Evidence supporting the addition of specific insulin regimens to oral therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus is limited. METHODS: In this 3-year open-label, multicenter trial, we evaluated 708 patients who had suboptimal glycated hemoglobin levels while taking metformin and sulfonylurea therapy. Patients were randomly assigned to receive biphasic insulin aspart twice daily, prandial insulin aspart three times daily, or basal insulin detemir once daily (twice if required). Sulfonylurea therapy was replaced by a second type of insulin if hyperglycemia became unacceptable during the first year of the study or subsequently if glycated hemoglobin levels were more than 6.5%. Outcome measures were glycated hemoglobin levels, the proportion of patients with a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.5% or less, the rate of hypoglycemia, and weight gain. RESULTS: Median glycated hemoglobin levels were similar for patients receiving biphasic (7.1%), prandial (6.8%), and basal (6.9%) insulin-based regimens (P=0.28). However, fewer patients had a level of 6.5% or less in the biphasic group (31.9%) than in the prandial group (44.7%, P=0.006) or in the basal group (43.2%, P=0.03), with 67.7%, 73.6%, and 81.6%, respectively, taking a second type of insulin (P=0.002). [corrected] Median rates of hypoglycemia per patient per year were lowest in the basal group (1.7), higher in the biphasic group (3.0), and highest in the prandial group (5.7) (P<0.001 for the overall comparison). The mean weight gain was higher in the prandial group than in either the biphasic group or the basal group. Other adverse event rates were similar in the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who added a basal or prandial insulin-based regimen to oral therapy had better glycated hemoglobin control than patients who added a biphasic insulin-based regimen. Fewer hypoglycemic episodes and less weight gain occurred in patients adding basal insulin. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN51125379.) Hide abstract

Holman RR, Paul SK, Bethel MA, Matthews DR, Neil HA. 2008. 10-year follow-up of intensive glucose control in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 359 (15), pp. 1577-1589. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: During the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who received intensive glucose therapy had a lower risk of microvascular complications than did those receiving conventional dietary therapy. We conducted post-trial monitoring to determine whether this improved glucose control persisted and whether such therapy had a long-term effect on macrovascular outcomes. METHODS: Of 5102 patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, 4209 were randomly assigned to receive either conventional therapy (dietary restriction) or intensive therapy (either sulfonylurea or insulin or, in overweight patients, metformin) for glucose control. In post-trial monitoring, 3277 patients were asked to attend annual UKPDS clinics for 5 years, but no attempts were made to maintain their previously assigned therapies. Annual questionnaires were used to follow patients who were unable to attend the clinics, and all patients in years 6 to 10 were assessed through questionnaires. We examined seven prespecified aggregate clinical outcomes from the UKPDS on an intention-to-treat basis, according to previous randomization categories. RESULTS: Between-group differences in glycated hemoglobin levels were lost after the first year. In the sulfonylurea-insulin group, relative reductions in risk persisted at 10 years for any diabetes-related end point (9%, P=0.04) and microvascular disease (24%, P=0.001), and risk reductions for myocardial infarction (15%, P=0.01) and death from any cause (13%, P=0.007) emerged over time, as more events occurred. In the metformin group, significant risk reductions persisted for any diabetes-related end point (21%, P=0.01), myocardial infarction (33%, P=0.005), and death from any cause (27%, P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Despite an early loss of glycemic differences, a continued reduction in microvascular risk and emergent risk reductions for myocardial infarction and death from any cause were observed during 10 years of post-trial follow-up. A continued benefit after metformin therapy was evident among overweight patients. (UKPDS 80; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN75451837.) Hide abstract

Holman RR, Paul SK, Bethel MA, Neil HA, Matthews DR. 2008. Long-term follow-up after tight control of blood pressure in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 359 (15), pp. 1565-1576. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: Post-trial monitoring of patients in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) examined whether risk reductions for microvascular and macrovascular disease, achieved with the use of improved blood-pressure control during the trial, would be sustained. METHODS: Among 5102 UKPDS patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus, we randomly assigned, over a 4-year period beginning in 1987, 1148 patients with hypertension to tight or less-tight blood-pressure control regimens. The 884 patients who underwent post-trial monitoring were asked to attend annual UKPDS clinics for the first 5 years, but no attempt was made to maintain their previously assigned therapies. Annual questionnaires completed by patients and general practitioners were used to follow patients who were unable to attend the clinic in years 1 through 5, and questionnaires were used for all patients in years 6 to 10. Seven prespecified aggregate clinical end points were examined on an intention-to-treat basis, according to the previous randomization categories. RESULTS: Differences in blood pressure between the two groups during the trial disappeared within 2 years after termination of the trial. Significant relative risk reductions found during the trial for any diabetes-related end point, diabetes-related death, microvascular disease, and stroke in the group receiving tight, as compared with less tight, blood-pressure control were not sustained during the post-trial follow-up. No risk reductions were seen during or after the trial for myocardial infarction or death from any cause, but a risk reduction for peripheral vascular disease associated with tight blood-pressure control became significant (P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of previously improved blood-pressure control were not sustained when between-group differences in blood pressure were lost. Early improvement in blood-pressure control in patients with both type 2 diabetes and hypertension was associated with a reduced risk of complications, but it appears that good blood-pressure control must be continued if the benefits are to be maintained. (UKPDS 81; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN75451837.) Hide abstract

Goldberg RB, Holman R, Drucker DJ. 2008. Clinical decisions. Management of type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 358 (3), pp. 293-297. Read abstract | Read more

This interactive Journal feature presents the case of a 55-year-old woman with type 2 diabetes, obesity, and hypertension. Three possible treatment options, any of which could be considered correct, are presented. Which option do you recommend? At www.nejm.org you can vote for one and then, if you wish, submit a comment about your clinical decision. Voting results and a broad selection of comments will be posted on the Web site. Copyright © 2008 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved. Hide abstract

Holman RR, Thorne KI, Farmer AJ, Davies MJ, Keenan JF, Paul S, Levy JC, 4-T Study Group. 2007. Addition of biphasic, prandial, or basal insulin to oral therapy in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 357 (17), pp. 1716-1730. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: Adding insulin to oral therapy in type 2 diabetes mellitus is customary when glycemic control is suboptimal, though evidence supporting specific insulin regimens is limited. METHODS: In an open-label, controlled, multicenter trial, we randomly assigned 708 patients with a suboptimal glycated hemoglobin level (7.0 to 10.0%) who were receiving maximally tolerated doses of metformin and sulfonylurea to receive biphasic insulin aspart twice daily, prandial insulin aspart three times daily, or basal insulin detemir once daily (twice if required). Outcome measures at 1 year were the mean glycated hemoglobin level, the proportion of patients with a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.5% or less, the rate of hypoglycemia, and weight gain. RESULTS: At 1 year, mean glycated hemoglobin levels were similar in the biphasic group (7.3%) and the prandial group (7.2%) (P=0.08) but higher in the basal group (7.6%, P<0.001 for both comparisons). The respective proportions of patients with a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.5% or less were 17.0%, 23.9%, and 8.1%; respective mean numbers of hypoglycemic events per patient per year were 5.7, 12.0, and 2.3; and respective mean weight gains were 4.7 kg, 5.7 kg, and 1.9 kg. Rates of adverse events were similar among the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: A single analogue-insulin formulation added to metformin and sulfonylurea resulted in a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.5% or less in a minority of patients at 1 year. The addition of biphasic or prandial insulin aspart reduced levels more than the addition of basal insulin detemir but was associated with greater risks of hypoglycemia and weight gain. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN51125379 [controlled-trials.com].). Hide abstract

Kahn SE, Haffner SM, Heise MA, Herman WH, Holman RR, Jones NP, Kravitz BG, Lachin JM et al. 2006. Glycemic durability of rosiglitazone, metformin, or glyburide monotherapy. N Engl J Med, 355 (23), pp. 2427-2443. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of thiazolidinediones, as compared with other oral glucose-lowering medications, in maintaining long-term glycemic control in type 2 diabetes is not known. METHODS: We evaluated rosiglitazone, metformin, and glyburide as initial treatment for recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in a double-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial involving 4360 patients. The patients were treated for a median of 4.0 years. The primary outcome was the time to monotherapy failure, which was defined as a confirmed level of fasting plasma glucose of more than 180 mg per deciliter (10.0 mmol per liter), for rosiglitazone, as compared with metformin or glyburide. Prespecified secondary outcomes were levels of fasting plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin, insulin sensitivity, and beta-cell function. RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a cumulative incidence of monotherapy failure at 5 years of 15% with rosiglitazone, 21% with metformin, and 34% with glyburide. This represents a risk reduction of 32% for rosiglitazone, as compared with metformin, and 63%, as compared with glyburide (P<0.001 for both comparisons). The difference in the durability of the treatment effect was greater between rosiglitazone and glyburide than between rosiglitazone and metformin. Glyburide was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events (including congestive heart failure) than was rosiglitazone (P<0.05), and the risk associated with metformin was similar to that with rosiglitazone. Rosiglitazone was associated with more weight gain and edema than either metformin or glyburide but with fewer gastrointestinal events than metformin and with less hypoglycemia than glyburide (P<0.001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: The potential risks and benefits, the profile of adverse events, and the costs of these three drugs should all be considered to help inform the choice of pharmacotherapy for patients with type 2 diabetes. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00279045 [ClinicalTrials.gov].). Hide abstract

DREAM Trial Investigators, Bosch J, Yusuf S, Gerstein HC, Pogue J, Sheridan P, Dagenais G, Diaz R et al. 2006. Effect of ramipril on the incidence of diabetes. N Engl J Med, 355 (15), pp. 1551-1562. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that blockade of the renin-angiotensin system may prevent diabetes in people with cardiovascular disease or hypertension. METHODS: In a double-blind, randomized clinical trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design, we randomly assigned 5269 participants without cardiovascular disease but with impaired fasting glucose levels (after an 8-hour fast) or impaired glucose tolerance to receive ramipril (up to 15 mg per day) or placebo (and rosiglitazone or placebo) and followed them for a median of 3 years. We studied the effects of ramipril on the development of diabetes or death, whichever came first (the primary outcome), and on secondary outcomes, including regression to normoglycemia. RESULTS: The incidence of the primary outcome did not differ significantly between the ramipril group (18.1%) and the placebo group (19.5%; hazard ratio for the ramipril group, 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.03; P=0.15). Participants receiving ramipril were more likely to have regression to normoglycemia than those receiving placebo (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.27; P=0.001). At the end of the study, the median fasting plasma glucose level was not significantly lower in the ramipril group (102.7 mg per deciliter [5.70 mmol per liter]) than in the placebo group (103.4 mg per deciliter [5.74 mmol per liter], P=0.07), though plasma glucose levels 2 hours after an oral glucose load were significantly lower in the ramipril group (135.1 mg per deciliter [7.50 mmol per liter] vs. 140.5 mg per deciliter [7.80 mmol per liter], P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Among persons with impaired fasting glucose levels or impaired glucose tolerance, the use of ramipril for 3 years does not significantly reduce the incidence of diabetes or death but does significantly increase regression to normoglycemia. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00095654 [ClinicalTrials.gov].). Hide abstract

DREAM (Diabetes REduction Assessment with ramipril and rosiglitazone Medication) Trial Investigators, Gerstein HC, Yusuf S, Bosch J, Pogue J, Sheridan P, Dinccag N, Hanefeld M et al. 2006. Effect of rosiglitazone on the frequency of diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose: a randomised controlled trial. Lancet, 368 (9541), pp. 1096-1105. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: Rosiglitazone is a thiazolidinedione that reduces insulin resistance and might preserve insulin secretion. The aim of this study was to assess prospectively the drug's ability to prevent type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the condition. METHODS: 5269 adults aged 30 years or more with impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance, or both, and no previous cardiovascular disease were recruited from 191 sites in 21 countries and randomly assigned to receive rosiglitazone (8 mg daily; n=2365) or placebo (2634) and followed for a median of 3 years. The primary outcome was a composite of incident diabetes or death. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00095654. FINDINGS: At the end of study, 59 individuals had dropped out from the rosiglitazone group and 46 from the placebo group. 306 (11.6%) individuals given rosiglitazone and 686 (26.0%) given placebo developed the composite primary outcome (hazard ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.35-0.46; p<0.0001); 1330 (50.5%) individuals in the rosiglitazone group and 798 (30.3%) in the placebo group became normoglycaemic (1.71, 1.57-1.87; p<0.0001). Cardiovascular event rates were much the same in both groups, although 14 (0.5%) participants in the rosiglitazone group and two (0.1%) in the placebo group developed heart failure (p=0.01). INTERPRETATION: Rosiglitazone at 8 mg daily for 3 years substantially reduces incident type 2 diabetes and increases the likelihood of regression to normoglycaemia in adults with impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance, or both. Hide abstract

Molyneux A. 2002. International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT) of neurosurgical clipping versus endovascular coiling in 2143 patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms: a randomised trial The Lancet, 360 (9342), pp. 1267-1274. | Read more

Molyneux A, Kerr R, Stratton I, Sandercock P, Clarke M, Shrimpton J, Holman R, International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT) Collaborative Group. 2002. International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT) of neurosurgical clipping versus endovascular coiling in 2143 patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms: a randomised trial. Lancet, 360 (9342), pp. 1267-1274. Read abstract | Read more

BACKGROUND: Endovascular detachable coil treatment is being increasingly used as an alternative to craniotomy and clipping for some ruptured intracranial aneurysms, although the relative benefits of these two approaches have yet to be established. We undertook a randomised, multicentre trial to compare the safety and efficacy of endovascular coiling with standard neurosurgical clipping for such aneurysms judged to be suitable for both treatments. METHODS: We enrolled 2143 patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms and randomly assigned them to neurosurgical clipping (n=1070) or endovascular treatment by detachable platinum coils (n=1073). Clinical outcomes were assessed at 2 months and at 1 year with interim ascertainment of rebleeds and death. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with a modified Rankin scale score of 3-6 (dependency or death) at 1 year. Trial recruitment was stopped by the steering committee after a planned interim analysis. Analysis was per protocol. FINDINGS: 190 of 801 (23.7%) patients allocated endovascular treatment were dependent or dead at 1 year compared with 243 of 793 (30.6%) allocated neurosurgical treatment (p=0.0019). The relative and absolute risk reductions in dependency or death after allocation to an endovascular versus neurosurgical treatment were 22.6% (95% CI 8.9-34.2) and 6.9% (2.5-11.3), respectively. The risk of rebleeding from the ruptured aneurysm after 1 year was two per 1276 and zero per 1081 patient-years for patients allocated endovascular and neurosurgical treatment, respectively. INTERPRETATION: In patients with a ruptured intracranial aneurysm, for which endovascular coiling and neurosurgical clipping are therapeutic options, the outcome in terms of survival free of disability at 1 year is significantly better with endovascular coiling. The data available to date suggest that the long-term risks of further bleeding from the treated aneurysm are low with either therapy, although somewhat more frequent with endovascular coiling. Hide abstract

1431